Facts and trends

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Energy and climate change Facts and trends to 2050 Introduction This publication provides an overview of key facts and societal challenges related to economic development, future energy demand and the impact that demand could have on the climate system. It forms part of the work program of the WBCSD 9s Energy and Climate Council Project and provides a platform for future discussion. This will help further elaborate a business response to the challenges identified in this paper, which will require additional research and consultation.

We cannot know exactly how the world will develop over the next half century, but the scenarios used here fit with the United Nations (UN) development goals of poverty reduction and improved living standards in the developing world. Achieving these goals will require an increase in energy consumption. Although we recognize that a range of human activities have an impact on greenhouse gas emissions and that many of these practices will have to change, the focus of this publication is on the world 9s use of energy and its related impacts.

We have used existing data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and WBCSD studies. We present it here in a ... more. less.

simplified and condensed form to stimulate forward thinking and discussion around the issues facing us as we begin to deal with climate change. Projections and examples based on particular global emission levels and eventual CO 2 concentrations in our atmosphere are only set out to illustrate the scale of the challenge. 2050 200 600 1000 1200 0 400 800 2000 1920-1 930s Primary energy EJ OECD countries Non-OECD countries Low High Coal economy New renewables such as wind and solar The transition is uncertain Development of oil, natural gas and large scale hydro, introduction of nuclear 2050 The issue at a glance . . . Growth, development and energy demand Energy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement for economic and social development. By 2050, energy demand could double or triple as population rises and developing countries expand their economies and overcome poverty. Transitions in our energy infrastructure will be needed, akin to those of the last 100 years. Today, as we face up to climate change as a major environmental threat, the way forward becomes less certain. Energy use and climate impacts Over the last century the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has risen, driven in large part by our usage of fossil fuels, but also by other factors that are related to rising population and increasing consumption, such as land use change. Coincident with this rise has been an increase in the global average temperature, up by nearly a degree Celsius. If these trends continue, global temperatures could rise by a further one to four degrees by the end of the 21st century, potentially leading to disruptive climate change in many places. By starting to manage our carbon dioxide emissions now, we may be able to limit the effects of climate change to levels that we can adapt to. The dynamics of technological change Many advocate an accelerated change in our energy infrastructure, away from fossil fuels, as the only solution to the threat of climate change. But it is not at all clear which technologies or policy frameworks might provide the impetus for change. Such transitions, which operate at a global level, take time to implement. Very large systems such as transport and energy infrastructures can take up to a century to develop fully. Reshaping our energy future By 2050, global carbon emissions would need to be at levels similar to 2000, but also trending downward, in contrast to a sharply rising demand for energy over the same period. No single solution will deliver this change, rather we need a mix of options which focus on using energy more efficiently and lowering its carbon intensity. Changes in supply and demand can help us shift to a truly sustainable energy path. While change takes time, starting the process now and laying foundations for the future are matters of urgency, and business has a key role to play. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 6000 5000 7000 9000 8000 2000 2050 Base case Low poverty Prosperous world Developed (GDP > USD12,000) Primary energy Emerging (GDP < USD12,000) Developing (GDP < USD5,000) Poorest (GDP < USD1,500) Developed Poorest Emerging Developing Figure 1: Rising population and increasing living standards lead to a substantial rise in energy demand. Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 United Nations Millennium Declaration cWe will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty, to which more than a billion of them are currently subjected. d 8 th plenary meeting, September 2000 [ [ I n 2000, only one in six of us on this planet had access to the energy required to provide us with the high living standards enjoyed in developed countries. Yet these one billion people consumed over 50% of the world 9s energy supply. By contrast, the one billion poorest people used only 4%. None of us finds poverty acceptable, so the world has set itself various goals to eradicate poverty and raise living standards. These goals require energy, the driver of modern living standards. Increased access to modern energy services such as electricity is a decisive factor in escaping the poverty trap; it vastly enhances opportunities for industrial development and improves health and education. Figure 1 shows how energy demand increases as population grows, development needs are met and living standards rise. It contrasts the outcome of cbusiness as usual d with two development scenarios. > By 2050, world population could rise to around 9 billion (UN 2002). With no change in the global development profile, another two to three billion people would be living in poverty (base case). > Two new development profiles are illustrated. Both reflect the UN goals to eliminate extreme poverty. Each shows increasing levels of development from the status quo, either to a clow poverty d world or to a cprosperous world d. > The pressures of population growth and the goals to raise living standards combine to set us a formidable energy challenge for the 21 st century. Shifting the development profile will require considerable investment with energy demand rising at least two- or three-fold from 2000. 2 Primary energy more than doubles compared to 2000 Primary energy more than triples compared to 2000 Primary energy Developed (GDP per capita > USD 12,000) Emerging (GDP per capita < USD 12,000) Developing (GDP per capita < USD 5,000) Poorest (GDP per capita < USD 1,500) Growth, development and energy demand Above USD3,000 per capita GDP (1995 PPP), energy demand explodes as industrialization and personal mobility take off. From USD15,000, demand grows more slowly as the main burst of industrialization is complete and services begin to dominate. Beyond USD25,000, economic growth can continue without significant energy increases, but the absolute level varies widely depending on national circumstances. Energy, the fuel for growth Growth, development and energy demand USA 20000 10000 5000 Australia Canada Russia Germany UK Japan Poland South Africa France Venezuela China Brazil Indonesia OECD Non-OECD World Other sector Pakistan India Nigeria Mozambique Non-road transport Road transport Manufacturing Energy industries Heat and power N uclear 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Diversit y of fuel sources Power generation emissions gCO 2 /kWh Mozambique (H) South Africa (C) Brazil (H) Indonesia (G, O, C, H) Japan (G, N, C, H) Canada (H, C, G, N) Russia (G, C, H, N) India (C, H) Australia (C, G) China (C, H) Iceland (H, Ge) France (N, H) Poland (C, G) Venezuela (H, G) Netherlands (G, C) Pakistan (G, H) New Zealand (H, G, Ge) USA (C, G, N) Germany (C, G, N) Denmark (G, C, W) UK (G, N, C) Nigeria (O, G, H) C oal O il G as (CCGT) Ge othermal H ydro W ind > > > > Energy use, development and CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions vary widely at all levels of development. Differences in otherwise similar economies depend on factors such as geography, types of domestic energy available, public acceptance of energy sources and mobility options, including the development of mass transportation. 1 Figure 4: CO 2 intensity of various types of power generation and the current intensity in a range of countries (year 2000 data, electricity and heat generation including auto producers). Fuel sources for each country are ranked in order of importance, with those contributing less than 10% not identified. Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 and CIA 2004 Figure 3: Breakdown by sector of CO 2 emissions on a per capita basis across a range of countries and for the world as a whole, then split OECD/non-OECD. Emissions by sector, kg CO 2 per capita per year (2001) Figure 2: Income vs. energy use in 2000, with 1970-2000 trends for Korea, China and Malaysia. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 Energy use (2000), GJ per capita GDP p er ca p ita ( 2000 ) , in USD ( 1995 )ppp 10,00020,00030,00040,00 0 Russia Canada Japan Mexico Brazil USA Korea 1970-2000 China 1970-2000 Malaysia 1970-2000 EU countries Selected countries 3 Other sectors Non-road transport Road transport Manufacturing Energy industries Heat and power Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 4 1500 1000 500 RE RE RE O ver the last century the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has risen, driven in large part by our usage of fossil fuels, but also by other factors that are related to rising population and increasing consumption, such as land use change. Although there is still debate as to the magnitude, there is solid evidence that our world is warming. The bulk of the scientific community, led by the IPCC and the United States National Academy of Sciences, has now linked these two phenomena in a likely cause-effect relationship. The IPCC has created a number of development storylines (see Glossary for a more detailed description of this) Coal Oil Biomass Renewables Figure 5: The IPCC scenarios show various options for energy use and fuel mix in 2050, dependent on growth and development assumptions and technological change in the coming years. -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Temperature variation (w.r.t. 1961-90) Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Smoothed variation 1860 to 2002 Atmospheric CO 2 , ppm Difference (°C) from 1961-1990 average Over the last century we have seen a rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from 280 ppm to some 370 ppm. Coincident with this rise has been an increase in global average temperature, up by nearly 1°C. Projections show that if this trend continues, global temperatures could rise by a further one to four degrees by the end of the 21 st century (see Figure 7). Source: IPCC 2001 b Figure 6: Variation in atmospheric CO 2 and global temperature since 1860. Source: Hadley Centre and CDIAC for the 21 st century to illustrate the magnitude of the changes we may be inducing in the climate. For illustrative purposes, only two of these have been used in this publication. They are aligned with anticipated global population growth and the changes we might expect as today 9s developing countries strive to end poverty and other nations achieve significant rises in living standards for their people (as illustrated in Section 1). The higher energy use storyline (IPCC A1B) describes a future world of very rapid economic growth and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. In this world, regional average income per capita converges such that the current distinctions between cpoor d and crich d countries eventually dissolve. The lower energy use storyline (IPCC B2) represents an intermediate level of economic growth with an emphasis on local solutions. In this world, there is less rapid but more diverse technological change with an emphasis on environmental protection. The primary energy use and fuel mix for the two storylines, based on the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM, also see Glossary) scenarios for each, are shown. Changes in our atmosphere are already underway! Nuclear Primary energy, EJ per year 2000 2050 B2 A1B AIM scenarios Biomass Renew. Nucl. Natural gas Energy use and climate impacts Energy use and climate impacts 15 20 25 5 10 200020202040206020802100 1000 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm 1980 Scenario A1B emissions range Scenario B2 emissions range 450 ppm 550 ppm 1000 ppm ºC Carbon emissions, Gt C/year Temperature rise Impacts of global temperature rise Risks to many Unique and threatened systems Risks to some Large increase Extreme climate events Increase Higher Large-scale high-impact events Very low 1990 6 - 5 - 4 - 1 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 2100 2100 2100 2300 2300 2300 The yardstick typically used to approach this question is the eventual concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere, or stabilization level. Up to the time of the industrial revolution this remained at 280 ppm. The IPCC scenarios lead to CO 2 concentrations continually rising during the 21 st century with no stabilization below the range 700 to 1000 ppm. Such levels of CO 2 are, according to the IPCC, likely to lead to very damaging impacts. A temperature rise of some 2-4°C could bring more extreme climate events, threaten sensitive eco-systems such as coral reefs and lead to rises in sea level. In the 4- 6°C range we may also see structural alterations to our weather patterns, possibly led by changes in important ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream. A level of stabilization of less than 500 ppm will be very difficult to achieve, as it requires a sharp downward turn in emissi ons before 2020. Stabilization at a somewhat higher level would be more achievable as it allows a timeframe in which significant change in our energy infrastructure could take place. Inertia is an inherent characteristic of the climate system, with CO 2 concentration, temperature and sea level continuing to rise for hundreds of years after emissions have been reduced. Thus some impacts of man-made climate change may be slow to appear. Is there an acceptable limit for CO 2 emissions? 2 Figure 7: Emissions scenarios to 2100, together with potential global temperature rise and associated climate impacts. Source: IPCC 2001 a Adapting to climate change The impact on our climate could be substantial even at an achievable stabilization level, so adaptation to climate change will have to play a part of any future strategy. Impacts will vary from region to region; much of the detail is uncertain. We may have to deal with impacts on health from the spread of tropical diseases, regional shortages of water due to changing monsoon patterns and disruption to agriculture from possible shifts in growing seasons. The combined economic and social impacts of these changes could be large. Measures might include: > Flood defences in low-lying areas, ranging from Florida to Bangladesh > Refugee planning for island states such as the Maldives > Improved water management (e.g. aqueducts) as rainfall patterns change Emission profiles which result in 450, 550 and 1000 ppm long-term CO 2 stabilization levels are shown, together with the range of carbon emissions for the A1B and B2 development scenarios. Potential global temperature rises can be linked with an increasing risk of severe climate impacts. By 2100, global average temperatures may have risen by 2-4°C for A1B/B2, higher even than the 1000 ppm case. By 2300, the 1000 ppm world could see a temperature rise of up to 6°C. 5 1930194019501960197019801990200020102020 1 million produced 16 million produced 21.5 million produced First prototype First concept Production at 1000 cars/month Production ends in Germany 1 million per annum produced Last vehicles on the road in the EU Production ends in Mexico Last vehicles on the road? Figure 10: The original VW Beetle will have been with us for nearly 100 years when the last vehicles leave the road. Figure 9: Typical infrastructure lifetimes, which are a factor in the rate at which new technologies enter the economy. M any advocate that a rapid change in our energy infrastructure is the only solution to the threat of climate change. Realistically, however, major transitions at the global level will take time to implement. The speed with which new technologies diffuse depends on many factors: > Size and lifetime matter. Very large systems such as transport and energy infrastructures can take up to a century to develop fully. Generally, the rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment, as illustrated in Figure 9. > Cost is also a factor that can impede change. Emerging and future technologies, including new renewables, will see widespread take-up only when they can compete with existing technologies. However, an entirely new value proposition (e.g. MP3 player vs. much cheaper cassette tape) can herald a period of rapid change which then leads to cost reduction. > Regional boundaries may limit change. New technologies in developed countries may arrive, mature and even decline before their widespread adoption in developing regions. The VW Beetle continued as a mainstream vehicle in many countries long after it disappeared from the roads in Europe and the USA. 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1943: Thomas Watson - Chairman, IBM cI think there is a world market for maybe six computers. d 1961: First paper on packet-switching theory 1969: ARPANET commissio n tworking 1972: @ first use 1983: Switch-over to TCP/IP 1990: Number of hosts exceeds 100,000 1991: www convention adopted 1946: ENIAC unveiled 1964: IBM 360 1972: Xerox GUI and mouse 1982: IBM PC 2000: Cheap high speed computing Dot.com boom explosive growth of the internet, acceptance as an everyday part of life. ed by DoD for research into The Internet revolution that we are experiencing today is the result of the development and convergence of various technologies. The builders of ENIAC didn 9tplan for a computer in every home and the first network pioneers were focused on linking universities and military sites, not doing grocery shopping on- line. Even a few years after the launch of the PC, many saw its uptake in the home as limited. Although very different in nature, there are many parallels to this in the energy and transport revolution. The oil industry boomed due to vehicle development and fuel availability was accelerated by the resulting consumer demand for cars. Both have added enormous value to our society; yet at the outset a car or computer in every home was seen as either unnecessary or prohibitive from a cost perspective. Both transformations are measured in decades, in contrast to our perception that change can happen overnight. Figure 8: Technology convergence supported the 40-year development of the Internet. How fast can change happen? 6 Infrastructure Expected lifetime, years Hydro station 75 ++ Building 45 +++ Coal station 45 + Infrastructure Expected lifetime, years Nuclear station 30-60 Gas turbine 25 + Motor vehicle 12-20 The dynamics of technological change The dynamics of technological change 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 200020102020203020402050 Total vehicles, millions 3 Case 1: The rapid introduction of zero carbon road transport technology Limiting CO 2 emissions from transport to sustainable levels is an important goal in addressing climate change. As Mobility 2030 (WBCSD 2004) points out, ceven under optimum circumstances, achieving this goal will take longer (probably quite a bit longer) than two or three decades d. Take the case of light duty vehicles (LDVs), which today represent around half of the transport sector 9s CO 2 emissions. In 2000 there were 750 million such vehicles in use with this number growing by 2% per year. To achieve significant CO 2 reductions from transport, these vehicles would have to be replaced with new advanced technology vehicles. However, the typical life of a car is some 12-20 years and also, the need to refit fuelling stations with lower carbon fuels could limit the take-up of new vehicles. The illustration on the right shows that even if large-scale deployment of vehicles that emit no CO 2 at all could start relatively early and progress at a rapid rate, it would not be until 2040 that the total number of traditional vehicles in use begins to decline. This means that GHG emissions from all LDVs would not begin to decline until that time, unless emissions for traditional vehicles decline significantly (for a detailed assessment on the carbon impact of specific vehicle technologies, see WBCSD 2004). Case 2: The immediate deployment of carbon neutral technologies in the power sector The IEA reference scenario (World Energy Outlook 2002) projects that to meet global demand for electricity the world 9s generating capacity will need to double from the year 1999 to 2030 (from 3500 to around 7000 GW). The scenario further assumes that we will build 1400 GW of coal capacity and 2000 GW of natural gas capacity (both to replace retired facilities and to meet new requirements). This would see CO 2 emissions from the power sector nearly double over this time period. But what if all new coal fired power plants utilized carbon capture and storage or nuclear/renewable capacity was built instead? Would that be sufficient for power sector emissions to start declining? At best, we could stabilize emissions from the power sector with these technologies. The 45+ year lifespan of existing and planned facilities gives us a considerable legacy through to 2030 and beyond. Implementing such a plan would also be difficult for many developing countries that see abundant local coal and cheap mature generating technology as an ideal response to growing energy demand. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 1999201020202030 10000 8000 9000 CO 2 emissions, Mt per year Figure 12: Impact of carbon-neutral technologies on power sector CO 2 emissions. CO 2 emissions from the power sector will still not start to decline before 2030 even if . . . How difficult is it? Change on a global scale is a massive undertaking. Even with challenging (and possibly unrealistic) growth assumptions and early deployment of the best new technologies, which arguably are not ready for large-scale use, it still proves difficult to hold emissions at current levels, let alone begin to see them decline. The two case studies below illustrate this process. Figure 11: An illustration of the rapid development and deployment of zero carbon vehicles. Annual total vehicle growth of 2% per year. Annual vehicle production growth of 2% per year. Large scale calternative d vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per year and grows at 20% per year thereafter. . . . because of the large existing base of power stations and their long lifetimes Global installed power generation capacity, GW > All new coal stations capture and store carbon or nuclear/ renewable capacity is built instead > Natural gas is the principal other fossil fuel Total alternative vehicles Total traditional vehicles Additional capacity needed Declining current capacity 7 Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Final energy A reduction in growth is not an acceptable path to a lower carbon world. Rather, we need a decoupling of the current direct link between standards of living and energy consumption. The developing world has the right to aspire to the levels enjoyed in OECD countries, and improved efficiency, diversity and technological development in our energy systems will be the keys to achieving this without escalating emissions unsustainably. We are already seeing examples of change, such as an increased use of gas, the introduction of advanced forms of renewable energy and high efficiency vehicles offered to the consumer. The two chosen IPCC scenarios (A1B-AIM and B2-AIM) build on these changes, with the evolution that we might see in the coming years illustrated in the side chart. This will not be enough, however, as both development paths lead to an eventual CO 2 stabilization of around 1000 ppm. Figure 13: Our current energy infrastructure and possible infrastructures associated with the two chosen IPCC scenarios. 20002050 (B2-AIM)2050 (A1B-AIM) 1000 1 GW nuclear plants 1000 1 GW hydro/tidal/ geothermal 500 million vehicles 500 million low CO 2 vehicles 50 EJ non- commercial fuel 100 EJ direct fuel use 25 EJ per year solar 500,000 5 MW wind turbines 1000 1 GW coal powerstations 1000 1 GW coal stations with carbon capture 1000 1 GW natural gas power stations 1000 1 GW oil power stations 8 Gt carbon Predominantly fossil fuel based energy world with hydro and nuclear power. 309 EJ 15 Gt carbon Intermediate growth, local solutions, less rapid technological change. 16 Gt carbon Rapid economic growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. BIO PRODUCT BIO PRODUCT PETROLFOSSIL BIO PRODUCT PETROL 671 EJ 1002 EJ Reshaping our energy future: The challenge ahead 8 4 A reduction of 6-7 Gt of carbon (22 Gt CO 2 ) emissions per year by 2050 compared to the A1B and B2 scenarios would place us on a 550 ppm trajectory rather than 1000 ppm CO 2 , but a step-change (r)evolution in our energy infrastructure would be required, utilizing resources and technologies such as: A further shift to natural gas Nuclear energy Renewables Bio-products Carbon capture and storage Advanced vehicle technologies Other energy efficiency measures How can an acceptable atmospheric CO 2 stabilization be achieved? A lower carbon world will require a marked shift in the energy/development relationship, such that similar development levels are achieved but with an average 30% less energy use. Both energy conservation through behavioral changes and energy efficiency through technologies play a role. Such a trend is a feature of the IPCC B1 storyline, which sees a future with a globally coherent approach to sustainable development. It describes a fast-changing and convergent world toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. The scenario leads to relatively low GHG emissions, even without explicit interventions to manage climate change. Energy conservation, energy efficiency and societal change Figure 14: The reduction in CO 2 emissions needed for a 550 ppm trajectory. There are many paths to a lower carbon world. The foldout chart illustrates but one of these. However, all paths will require solutions from a range of emission reduction technologies as well as energy conservation and efficiency measures. CO 2 emissions GtC / year 25 30 200020202040206020802100 20 15 10 5 0 5 5 0 p p m 1 0 0 0 p p m 6-7 Gt reduction IPPC A1B-AIM 2050 IPPC B2-AIM 2050 Figure 15: IPCC scenario B1 shows the impact of a globally coherent approach to sustainable development. CO 2 emissions GtC / year 200020202040206020802100 0 5 10 15 20 5 5 0 p p m 1 0 0 0 p p m Scenario B1 emissions range Scenario A1B/B2 emissions range Reshaping our energy future: The challenge ahead 9 Source: IPCC 2001 b Source: IPCC 2001 b Emission reduction Nuclear energy 700 1 GW nuclear plants rather than equivalentconventionalcoal facilities would reduce emissions by 1 Gt carbon per year. However: The 4+% growth rate needed exceeds the <2.5% growth rate in nuclear in the 1990s. Nuclear has to overcome public acceptance obstacles. Road transport Road transport emissions contributed 1.5 Gt of carbon emissions in 2000. This could rise to over 3 Gt by 2050 as the number of vehicles exceeds 2 billion. Yet: If all these vehicles increased efficiency levels (e.g. using hybrid or advanced diesel technologies), emissions could be lower by 1 Gt carbon in 2050. If 800+ million vehicles utilized a new hydrogen transport infrastructure (including fuel cell technology) with zero emission fuel production, emissions would also be lower by 1 Gt carbon. The 9 Gt world presented here is based on the use of high efficiency ICE vehicles, partly run on biofuel (see cBio-products d). Mass transportation CO 2 emissions per person vary over a 3:1 range for developed countries with similar lifestyles due to infrastructure differences and public attitude to mass transit. A further shift to natural gas Natural gas is more efficient from a carbonperspectivethanconventional coal(assuming no CO 2 capture) or oil (see Figure 4). 1400 1 GW CCGT rather than coal fired plants, means 1 Gt less carbon emissions per year: A consistent growth of 2.6% per year over 50 years is needed for the 9 Gt world. This is greater than the 2.4% which is forecast by IEA in the World Energy Outlook (2000-2030). Natural gas is still a fossil fuel with economic supply limits, which means its role is transitory, rather than long-term. 2050 (550 ppm trajectory) Figure 16: There are many paths to a lower carbon world. One of these is illustrated here. However, all paths will require solutions from a range of technologies as well as energy conservation measures. 9 Gt carbon Rapid economic growth at low energy/carbon intensity, enabled by societal and technology changes. Energy conservation and efficiency 705 EJ Reshaping our energy future: Options for change Reshaping our energy future: Options for change 4 Carbon capture and storage Carbon capture and storage may provide an effective route to further utilize the world 9s abundant coal resources. 700 1 GW coal fired power stations utilizing capture and storage would result in 1 Gt less of carbon emissions. A number of challenges exist: Low-cost CO 2 separation technology Societal acceptance of the technology Identifying and developing sufficient sites Establishing monitoring protocols Bio-products Biofuel- and biomass-based products can reduce emissions from power generation, manufacturing and transport. In 2000, the non-sustainable use of biomass added 1 Gt carbon emissions to the atmosphere, for the production of only 50 EJ of non- commercial final energy (typically for cooking in developing countries). By 2050, sustainable biofuel and biomass production could contribute 100 EJ of final energy with little or no net CO 2 emissions. Buildings The US DOE Zero Energy Home program has shown that a 90% reduction in net home energy use can be achieved in new buildings. Low energy appliances Today, over 0.5 Gt of carbon emissions come directly and indirectly from lighting. Two billion people in developing countries use direct fuel burning as their only source of lighting, consuming more energy per capita than many in developed countries for the same purpose. A shift to advanced lighting technology, such as white LEDs (Light Emitting Diodes), could see global reductions in related carbon emissions of up to 50%. Doing things differently The information society offers real opportunity for energy conservation. Better stock management through on-demand services and mobile communication results in less waste, reduced transport and ultimately lower greenhouse gas emissions. Advances in wireless technology may allow developing countries to rapidly adopt such approaches, avoiding unnecessary infrastructure investment, which in turn could help their growth progress along a lower Energy per GDP trend line. Renewables An emission reduction of 1 Gt carbon per year could be achieved by replacing 700 1 GW conventionalcoal plants with facilities based on renewable energy. Wind power 3 Over 300,000 5 MW wind turbines would be required (for 1 Gt) and would cover an area the size of Portugal, although much of the land would still be usable. Many are now sited offshore. Solar power 3 Becoming an important source of electricity for the more than 2 billion people worldwide who have no access to the electrical power grid. Geothermal 3 Current capacity and potential growth prospects are similar to wind and it has a very low land use 8footprint 9. Hydroelectricity 3 Hydropower offers a renewable energy source on a realistic scale in many developing countries where its potential is not fully utilized. 10 ARPANET: The Advanced Research Projects Agency Network was formed by the US government in the early 60s and led to the development of ARPANET, the world 9s first network enabling communication between computer users. AIM : Scenarios from the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) from the National Institute of Environmental Studies in Japan 3 see cIPCC Scenarios d below. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) : The principal gaseous product from the combustion of hydrocarbons such as natural gas, oil and coal. CO 2 exists naturally in the atmosphere and it is a greenhouse gas, but its concentration has been rising over the last century. Carbon capture and storage : A long-term alternative to emitting carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is capturing and storing it. Geological carbon storage involves the injection of CO 2 into subsurface geological formations. If the CO 2 source is not of sufficient purity, separation must take place first. CCGT and CHP : Combined Cycle Gas Turbine is a highly efficient type of plant that can convert more than 50% of the chemical energy in the gas to electrical energy. The overall efficiency can be further improved in a combined heat and power plant (CHP). Concentration: The amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere at any given time, typically measured in parts per million (ppm). In this publication CO 2 concentration means CO 2 only and does not include other greenhouse gases. DOE : United States government Department of Energy. Emission: The release of a material (CO 2 in this context) into the atmosphere, typically measured in tonnes per year. ENIAC: Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer, commissioned in 1943 by the US Department of Defense (Dod) for their Ballistics Research Laboratory. Final energy: The energy we actually use in our cars, homes, offices and factories. GDP : Gross domestic product, a measure of the size of the economy. Gigatonnes (Gt): Carbon emissions to the atmosphere are very large, so we measure them in gigatonnes, or billions of tonnes. One Gt CO 2 in the atmosphere is equivalent to 0.3 Gt carbon. Glossary and references 11 Greenhouse gas (GHG) : Gases in the earth 9s atmosphere that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation thus allowing the atmosphere to retain heat. These gases occur through both natural and human-influenced processes. The major GHG is water vapor. Other primary GHGs include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), CFCs and SF 6 . ICE : Internal combustion engine. IEA : International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body committed to advancing security of energy supply, economic growth and environmental sustainability through energy policy co-operation. A principal publication produced by IEA is the World energy outlook (WEO) . IPCC : The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by the United Nations to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC scenarios: The IPCCdeveloped four narrative storylines to describe potential pathways and encompass different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. Importantly, the storylines do not include specific climate initiatives such as the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Each scenario then represents a specific quantitative interpretation of one of the storylines. For each storyline several different scenarios were developed using different modelling approaches. All the scenarios based on the same storyline constitute a scenario dfamily d. In this publication we have used the A1B (balanced energy supply mix) and B2 storylines, and for our illustration of specific energy infrastructures, the scenarios from the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) from the National Institute of Environmental Studies in Japan. The A1B-AIM is a marker scenario for the A1 storyline, with emissions in the middle of the range of all 40 IPCC scenarios. We have also referenced the B1 storyline and family of scenarios given their strong emphasis on energy efficiency and consequent low future emissions. Joule, GigaJoules (GJ) and ExaJoules (EJ): A joule is a measure of energy use, but being a small amount, must be expressed in very large numbers when discussing global energy. A GigaJoule is one billion joules (1 followed by 9 zeroes), an ExaJoule is 1 followed by 18 zeroes. One ExaJoule is 278 billion kWh, or 278 thousand GWh, or the equivalent of 32 1 GW power plants running for one year. Glossary OECD : Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. Parts per million (ppm) : Parts (molecules) of a substance contained in a million parts of another substance. In this document cppm d is used as a volumetric measure to express the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at any time. PPP : Purchasing Power Parity, the rate of currency conversion that equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies. PPPs compare costs in different currencies of a fixed basket of traded and non-traded goods and services and yield a widely based measure of standard of living. Primary energy : The total energy available from our resources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, assuming 100% efficient use of those resources. Stabilization : The long-term balanced concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere. CO 2 constantly migrates from the atmosphere to the oceans, to plant and animal life and then back to the atmosphere where a balanced concentration has been maintained for thousands of years. Following a change in the balance due to additional emissions, a new balance, or stabilization, may take centuries to establish itself. Watt , KiloWatts (KW), MegaWatts (MW), GigaWatts (GW) and Watt-Hour (Wh): A watt is a measure of the rate of energy use, and is equivalent to a joule per second. A MegaWatt is one million watts, a GigaWatt is one billion watts. Power generation is typically expressed in watt-hours (Wh), which is the supply or use of one watt for a period of one hour. Households express energy use in kilowatt-hours (kWh). An appliance that requires 1000 watts to operate and is left on for one hour will have consumed one kilowatt- hour of electricity. See also the definition of Joule. 12 "BP 2003: Statistical review of world energy "Central Intelligence Agency 2004: The world factbook "Evan Mills Ph.D., IAEEL and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2002: The $230-billion global lighting energy bill "Hadley Centre and Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC): http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/home.html "IEA 2003: CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion 1971-2001 "IEA 2002: World Energy Outlook "IPCC 2001 a: Climate change 2001, Synthesis report "IPCC 2001 b: Emissions scenarios: A special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "UN 2002: World population prospects "WBCSD 2004: Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability Principal references and sources Glossary and references About the WBCSD About the WBCSD 13 Ordering publications WBCSD, c/o Earthprint Limited Tel: (44 1438) 748111 Fax: (44 1438) 748844 wbcsd@earthprint.com Publications are available at: www.wbcsd.org www.earthprint.com The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a coalition of 170 international companies united by a shared commitment to sustainable development via the three pillars of economic growth, ecological balance and social progress. Our members are drawn from more than 35 countries and 20 major industrial sectors. We also benefit from a global network of 50 national and regional business councils and partner organizations involving some 1,000 business leaders. Our mission To provide business leadership as a catalyst for change toward sustainable development, and to promote the role of eco-efficiency, innovation and corporate social responsibility. Our aims Our objectives and strategic directions, based on this dedication, include: > Business leadership: to be the leading business advocate on issues connected with sustainable development > Policy development: to participate in policy development in order to create a framework that allows business to contribute effectively to sustainable development > Best practice: to demonstrate business progress in environmental and resource management and corporate social responsibility and to share leading- edge practices among our members > Global outreach: to contribute to a sustainable future for developing nations and nations in transition Disclaimer This brochure is released in the name of the WBCSD. Like other WBCSD publications, it is the result of a collaborative effort by members of the secretariat and executives from several member companies. Drafts were reviewed by a wide range of members, so ensuring that the document broadly represents the majority view of the WBCSD membership. It does not mean, however, that every member company agrees with every word. Energy and Climate Council Project Co-chairs Anne Lauvergeon (AREVA) John Manzoni (BP) Egil Myklebust (Norsk Hydro) Working group representatives from 75 member companies and 12 regional BCSDs Our warmest thanks to all members of the Energy and Climate working group for their contribution to this brochure. Project director Laurent Corbier (WBCSD) Lead author David Hone (Shell) Co-author Simon Schmitz (WBCSD) Design Michael Martin and Anouk Pasquier (WBCSD) Photo credits Pictures on cover, page 8 and page 9 courtesy of Toyota Motor Corporation. Copyright © WBCSD, August 2004. ISBN 2-940240-63-9 Printer Atar Roto Presse SA, Switzerland Printed on paper containing 50% recycled content and 50 % from mainly certified forests (FSC and PEFC). 100 % chlorine free. ISO 14001 certified mill. 4, chemin de ConchesTel:(41 22) 839 31 00E-mail:info@wbcsd.org CH - 1231 Conches-GenevaFax:(41 22) 839 31 31Web:www.wbcsd.org Switzerland

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