Wind Energy: Facts and Fiction A half truth is a whole lie

& Environment, Vol. 17, N o 4, 2006) Over the past several years, dozens of newspaper and online articles have recorded the author 9s activities and his stance against the misleading information regarding the characteristics and capabilities of wind turbines as producers of electri city for national use. He maintains that wind energy advocates with hidden political and monetary agendas intentionally withhold vital information from the public.<br><br> 2 Table of Contents Introduction Why 8Wind Energy 9 instead of 8Wind Power 9 E = f.m spec .v 3 . The kinetic energy of wind Efficient use of wind turbines is possible Numbers and technical units, conversions and consumption Advantage of converting kWh into kWyears, megawattyears or gigawattyears Technical properties of prime movers Steam turbines Gas turbines Water turbines Wind turbines The production of electric power by wind energy Chart of speed and kinetic energy of wind Understanding the Beaufort wind scale Aggregate wind p ower of 7000 wind turbines Diversifying the wind system: Scotland and Cornwall Modern wind turbines Implications of the production factor/capacity factor Production factors in Europe The Netherlands Germany Variations in unpredi ctably produced kilowatts Why wind energy is entirely unreliable Why wind energy will remain expensive A special warning for the UK Wind energy: Always a poor substitute for traditional power stations 8Households 9 is not a unit of measurement The minute production of electricity in numbers A 3 MW wind turbine A 5 MW wind turbine 8 The biggest wind farm in Europe ! 9 Really? Official and unofficial dogma: 8Never tell the full truth about wind energy. 9 8By 2010 perhaps even 10% of the national electricity consumption can be produced using wind energy. 9: fact or fiction?<br><br> Onshore and offshore wind farms Onshore wind turbines Offshore wind farm: Horns Rev in Denmark 3 The illusion of an offshore 6000 MW wind farm in the North Sea A warning from Lord David Howell, former President of the British Institute of Energy Economists Eye opener in Time (April 3, 2006) Kyoto: Facts and fiction Global energy problems: What should be d one? How to reduce carbon dioxide and fuel emissions: Suggestions for some major and minor solutions Appendix What is a heat pump? Suggested reading ========== Introduction Electric power is a cornerstone of any country 9s economy and standard of living.<br><br> The uninterrupted availability of electric power, from second to second all year around, determines every opp ortunity associated with that economy and living standard. Most people take for granted that electric power is generally always at hand with unfailing reliability, unaware that complex technical measures and the disciplined co - operation of many large inter connected power stations are necessary to achieve and to maintain that situation. Fervent d iscussions and enthusiastic articles about new ways to produce electric power currently abound.<br><br> And wind energy in particular features in these alternatives for a sustainable production of electricity, especially in the light of global environmental concerns. It is remarkable, however, that the most important information concerning the factors necessary for a reliable consumer supply is almost always withheld . Li ke the fact that all the properties and inherent disadvantages of wind turbines are caused by one single law of physics, a Law of Nature .<br><br> That is the law that determines the kinetic energy of wind as being the source of the driving force of wind turbines: E = f. m spec. .v 3 This is the reason that you w ill continuously be confronted with this formula when its miserable consequences for wind turbines come up in this dissertation.<br><br> Some of these unpleasant but unavoidable consequences are: its minuscule but always unpredictable kilowatt - hour production, the hundreds of equally randomly occurring v ariations and power interruptions in the course of a yea r and resulting form all this, the risks for a save operation of the grid and the minute substitute of wind energy for conventional electricity production 4 These matters and some more of which little is written or spoken by promoters of wind energy will be discussed. Showing how much is downright kept concealed or even made looking better by showing statistics that are contrary to reality. Su ch as a misleading graph of an average of the uncontrollable varying kilowatt production of wind turbines over a certain period instead of the reality of hundreds randomly sharp varying power between zero and maximum..<br><br> (See the figures 1 and 2 further on) This of course does not mean that new ideas about the produc tion and competitiveness of alternative sources of power generation are un welcome, but the limitations and disadvantages should never be hidden intentionally. Indeed, one must resist attempts to gain any kind of personal advantage, whether financial or pol itical. Disturbing is that for many promoters of wind energy the sole motivation seems to be to garner strongly subsidised contracts for the construction of wind turbines, or at least to acquire a laudable 8green 9 image.<br><br> The world is facing acute energy pr oblems. In the ligh t of steadily growing concerns, the public should not be told that a partial solution has already bee n found and is working well. That claim is blatantly untrue.<br><br> This treatise i s intended to provide enough information to enable the read er to distinguish between facts and fiction, between sense and nonsense, regarding wind energy and wind turbines. The reader should not be confused or intimidated by the many numbers presented here. T he truth can often only be demonstrated successfully by measured or directly measurable integers.<br><br> This is true in particular with regard to wind energy. You will frequently come across a reference to that formula E = f. m spec .<br><br> v 3 because that is the gist of the whole truth about wind energy. You will also meet some explanations similar to those given in previous or later sections. The repetitions are intentional.<br><br> Because of its highly accurate and educational nature, I refer often to the excellent Wind Report 2005 from E.ON, a large German electricity compan y that operates no fewer than 7000 wind turbines. This report offers a clear and concise insight into the almost unsolvable problems caused currently in Germany by the extensive use of wind energy. ============ 5 Wind power or wind energy The reason why I have chose n to use the term Wind Energy instead of Wind Power in the title is because most publications from promoters of wind energy use the word Power (the kilowatts) to conceal the essential fact that the Energy (the kilowatt hours) produced by w ind turbines is negligible and without any 8security of supply 9.<br><br> This is explained in the next chapter. For consumers of electricity the energy is of prime importance. E=f.m spe .v 3 .<br><br> The kinetic energy of wind The kinetic energy of the wind is the s ource of the driving force of a wind turbine. That kinetic energy can be depicted by the formula E = f. m spec .v 3 In this formula: E = the kinetic energy m spec =the specific mass (weight) of air v = the velocity of the moving air (the wind) f = a calculating factor without any physic meaning That specific mass of air is extremely low: 1.18 kg/m 3 The velocity of the wind is, technically speaking, also very low This shows that the kinetic energy of wind can only be small.<br><br> And because of that third power (the cube) of the velocity v it can only be extremely variable when the speed of the wind changes. The term v 3 indicates that it is impossible to predict the power that drives the propeller of a wind turbine. For that reason it is equally impos sible to forecast the number of kilowatts that will be produced at any given moment, or the number of kilowatt - hours during a certain period.<br><br> Likewise, a prediction of the production factor/capacity factor of a wind turbine is impossible. It will always be guesswork. It is clear that the behaviour of the kinetic energy of the wind is the source of all the miseries relating to the use of wind turbines.<br><br> Without any exception. 6 Figure 1 The figure demonstrates variations in the power of a single 600 kW wind turbine situated very close to the North Sea coast in the Netherlands, as measured over a full year (8760 hours). Figure 2 (below), taken from the German Eon Netz (E.ON) Wind Report 2005 , depicts the hundreds of marked but completely unpredictabl e variations during a year of generated power determined by the previously mentioned formula.<br><br> The figure shows the total hourly output in 2004 of 7000 wind turbines spread over several thousand square kilometres, from the North Sea and the Baltic Sea to the Austrian - Swiss border. Variations between 0.2 and 38 % of the E.ON grid 9s daily peak load occur. This is certainly not a reliable supply of consumer electricity, and in fact implies severe risks for a stable electricity net.<br><br> It also proves that distr ibuting wind turbines over a wide area does not help to prevent extreme and random variations in the total wind power. 7 Figure 2 (figure 3 in the E.ON report) The figure demonstrates the striking similarity to the variations depicted for a single turbine as shown in Figure 1. It is easy to see that attempts to diversify the wind turbines over a wide area fail to make the aggregate power steadier.<br><br> The sum of randomly occurring phenomena can never result in a steady p henomenon. More will be explained in the chapter about the differences in behaviour between other sorts of prime movers and wind turbines. Efficient use of wind turbines is possible Nobody can deny that a wind turbine makes use of the free available drivi ng power of wind.<br><br> And as a Dutchman I am certainly not against the intelligent use of wind energy; after all, 30% of our country was 8created 9 using wind power. 8 Indeed a number of possibilities exist to employ wind turbines as the driving power for many u seful machines without incurring serious disadvantages and risks while generating electricity for the national grid. This book is concerned only with the disadvantages and risks that arise from the erroneous use of wind turbines.<br><br> An intelligent and efficie nt use - during which there would be no disadvantage if the wind strength varied - include: " Pumping water out of 8polders 9 (low - lying areas of land that have been reclaimed from water and are protected by dikes), which is how a large part of Holland was c reated; " Driving mills for cereals and other products; " Driving water pumps for the irrigation of agricultural areas; Charging small batteries at isolated locations for limited local use. For instance, this made it possible to lis ten to the BBC news during W WII. Who does still remember the BBC call sign " " " _ " " " _ ?<br><br> For these applications no heavy and reliable electricity generation would be necessary and no serious risks would be involved if the turbine failed to produce constant and reliable power. Thus, the purpose of this treatise is certainly not to slate all wind turbine applications, but to expose the fallacy that wind turbines are a blanket solution to the planet 9s energy problems. Numbers and technical units, conversions and consumption It i s important to understand that 8power 9 and 8energy 9 are two wholly different concepts.<br><br> Power is measured in watts or kilowatts; Energy is measured mainly in kilowatt - hours. This is because Energy = Power x Time . Rangi ng from smallest to largest, the units for electric power are: Watt (= 1 Watt) Kilowatt (= 1,000 Watts) Megawatt (= 1,000,000 Watts) Gigawatt (= 1,000 Megawatts or 10 9 Watt) Kilowatt is often written kW Megawatt is written MW G igawatt is written GW 9 Because energy = power x time, every energy designation is a combination of a unit of power and a unit of time (mostly hour or year).<br><br> Examples are kilowatt - hour (or kWh), megawatt - hour (or MWh) and gigawatt - hour (or GWh). In addition , we have kilowatt - years (kWyears) and megawatt - years (MWyears). The unit Joule is used at times to indicate an extremely small measure of energy.<br><br> A Joule is the equivalent of 1watt - second. Thus, the larger amounts of energy expressed in Joules have the prefix Tera ( = 10 12 ) or Peta ( = 10 15 ). You will cccasionally see the term PJ, meaning Petajoules.<br><br> In this case it is good to know that: 1 PJ = 31.7 MWyear 1 PJ = 2.78, 10 5 MWh As the production of energy (the kWh) by a wind turbine is essential, the term 8wind energy 9 - instead of 8wind power 9 - is used in the title and throughout most of the text in this book. Advantage of converting kWh into kWyears, M Wyears or GWyears To obtain a more realistic and transparent figure, the number of hours in a ye ar, 8760 , should be used when converting the huge numbers relating to a country 9s electricity consumption. At the moment, national consumption is generally expressed in such an enormous number of kWh that it is difficult to determine what that number real ly means.<br><br> When these kWh are converted into kilowatt - years (kWy) by dividing by 8760 the resulting information is considerably clearer. For example, the annual national electric power consumption of the Netherlands in 2005 was approximately 113,880 GWh. This huge number provides little understandable information.<br><br> By converting these GWhs into GWyear s by dividing 113,880 by 8760, one arrives at 13 GWyears, or 13,000 MWyears. By simply omitting the suffix 8year 9, one sees immediately that the total consump tion of electricity in the Netherlands was generated by an average aggregate power of 13,000 MW from all the contributing power stations . According to official information, the total electricity consumption in the UK in 2004 was about 402,960 GWh, or 402 ,960,000 MWh.<br><br> Again, dividing by 8760 we arrive at 46,000 MWyears, showing that all the electricity in the UK was generated with an average total power of 46,000 MW. (This is some three - and - a - half times the power generated by all the power stations in the Netherlands 1 0 plus the approximately 20 - 25% that was imported, mainly from nuclear power stations in Belgium and France). As one will notice later, this conversion into kWyears or MWyears also demonstrates unequivocally that most reports about the usefulnes s of wind turbines are misleading, because the negative properties of the machines are concealed.<br><br> Only if one examines the amount of a country 9s total consumption of electric power in kWyears and then compares this to the amount of kWyear production by wi nd turbines will the unreliable nature of wind power become evident. This is even more disturbing when one realises that the total energy consumption of an industrialised country is almost six times greater than the mere electricity consumption. It is imp ortant to remember that what is called the 8efficiency 9 of a machine, say a steam turbine, is a notion quite different from its 8production factor 9 (or 8capacity factor 9).<br><br> Also significant is that data about the total national electricity consumption in s ome countries is not always based upon the same statistical system. In this book I have used the following numbers to indicate approximat e MWyears: Table 1: Electricity consumption of certain countries UK 46,000 MWyears (2004) Germany 60,300 MWyears ( 2005) France 49,435 MWyears (2003) Spain 26,380 MWyears (2003) Netherlands 12,500 MWyears (2004) USA 417,000 MWyears (2003) China 247,717 MWyears (2004) India 59,246 MWyears (2003) Canada 59,463 MWyears (2003) Brazil 42,373 MWyears (2003) World 1, 630,000 MWyears (2003) 11 Technical properties of prime movers: steam - , gas - , water - and wind turbines Steam turbines These machines are propelled by the exceedingly strong driving force of many tons of steam at extremely high pressure and with a high tem perature at the inlet. The steam flows at a significant speed through the machine until it has transmitted all its energy to the rotor, ending at vacuum pressure in the turbine 9s condenser.<br><br> In this way almost nothing of the incoming steam 9s initial driving force is lost. The turbine rotor contains many rows of blades, against which the force of the steam is transmitted. W ith its hundreds of blades, the rotor resembles an enormous porcupine.<br><br> The huge turbines in power stations use three stages of steam: in the machine 9s high pressure turbine, in the medium pressure turbine and in the low pressure turbine. The turbine 9s total output force can be regulated between maximum power and a lesser power by varying the inflow of the steam, as required. Changing the po wer output of a steam turbine can take considerable time.<br><br> This is a highly important property for the functioning of the turbine, in parallel with the large but uncontrollable varying power input from wind energy. For a relatively large and modern steam t urbine, the properties of the steam at the inlet can be: p ressure up to 185 atm and a temperature of 550 degrees Celsius. This means that the driving energy of the steam is immense.<br><br> A steam turbine can maintain its maximum power of hundreds of MW for many months without interruption. A modern machine like this runs with a thermal efficiency of 46 - 48%. The capacity of most power station turbines ranges from about 100 MW up to 600 or even 800 MW.<br><br> These levels can be maintained for weeks or even months at a t ime. Before commissioning a new turbine it is normal practice to demonstrate empirically that production at a steady full capacity can be maintained without interruption for a whole week or even ten days. It is during this 8guarantee test 9 that the predict ed thermal efficiency is measured.<br><br> 12 Gas turbines In a combustion chamber, a significant amount of hot gas is produced by burning either liquid fuel or natural gas. In principle, the rotor of a gas turbine resembles that of a steam turbine. Gas turbines ca n have a maximum power of many MW, and they can also be regulated between maximum and minimum power.<br><br> The hot gas has an immense driving force as well. A gas turbine can maintain its power uninterrupted for a long period, and in power stations often up to 600 or even 800 MW. Water turbines These machines are driven by the high kinetic energy of a massive amount of water (1000 kilograms per m 3 ) flowing at high speed through the machine.<br><br> For large water turbines the mass of the driving water is many tons per minute, and a power of many up to hundreds of MW can easily be reached. Total power output can also be precisely regulated by varying the amount of incoming water. Wind turbines The purpose of this book is to equip the reader with as much solid informati on as possible about the facts and the fiction surrounding wind turbines.<br><br> Thus, it will be necessary to examine closely a number of aspects. The production of electric power by wind energy Chart of speed and kinetic energy of wind Firstly, let us remembe r that wind is a form of solar energy, and is caused by the uneven heating of the sun 9s atmosphere, by irregularities on the earth 9s surface and by the earth 9s rotation. The terms 8wind energy 9 or 8wind power 9 describe the process by which the wind is use d to generate mechanical power and from that electricity.<br><br> Secondly, the production of electric power by wind energy is achieved in the following successive steps: A. It begins with the kinetic energy of the wind as the primary power source, which is hig hly variable between zero and maximum and is only unpr edictably available. This was explained in the first chapter of this paper B.<br><br> This kinetic energy is then transformed into a mechanical force by the rotor blades of the turbine, with a certain 8propell er efficiency 9. This 13 propeller efficiency is not very h igh, also because a part of the original driving power is lost. This is because a considerable part of the wind blows undisturbed through the propeller circle between the two or three rotor blades.<br><br> The re is, according to a 8law of Betz 9, even a maximum of the efficiency of the propeller. Unlike the functioning of a steam - gas - or water turbine there is no difference of the air pressure between the front and the backside of the impeller. The remaining p ower is what drives the electrical generator.<br><br> (The unavoidable random variations of the power output are shown in the figures 1 and 2 of the first chapter) C. The generated current is then transformed by a semiconductor circuit into a current of 50 o r 60 cycles. D.<br><br> This current is then given the voltage appropriate to connect to the utility grid by a transformer. Those figures 1 and 2 show that the output of the wind turbine or wind turbines fluctuates over a year randomly with hundreds of varia tions between zero power and maximum power. Because of its negative implications, however, that fact is generally concealed by promoters in their contrived descriptions of the advantages of wind energy.<br><br> In any report about wind energy written by its advoc ates you will notice at once what is not told. Therefore, it is important to understand that the entire process from wind to electric power as it is fed into the grid is governed totally by a random behaviour of the wind 9s kinetic energy. This is a random behaviour that can not be restrained.<br><br> Not by whatever measure. And not by whatever the promoters of wind energy assert. It is just the result of a Law of Nature.<br><br> How would an output that varies with the third power of the speed of the driving medium ever result in a reliable, a useful producer of electricity? A change in wind speed from the speed for producing maximum power to half of that speed will reduce the output to 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1 /8 or 12,5 %... This illustrates the need to keep that third power in mind , because that cube really determines all the aspects of wind energy, whether technical or economical.<br><br> Everything. One really has to be a great optimist to think, or assert, that such a strange machine can be used for giving a security of suppl y of electricity. And a 14 security of supply is of course the first requisite for operating an electricity network It is clear that this uncontrollable behaviour of a wind turbine is also incomparable with the functioning of steam - , gas - or water turbines 9 Further on in this paper the very important disadvantages and their 8collateral 9 risks for a national electricity grid are explained.<br><br> Understanding the Beaufort wind scale . The severe dependence of the kinetic driving energy of the wind turbine on the wind speed is demonstrated in the following chart (Table 2) , in which it is postulated that the kinetic energy needed for 100% power is reached at a wind speed of about 55 - 60 km/h (Beaufort 7). Above 60 km/h, the propellers are often pitched in such a way as to prevent the generator overloading.<br><br> This chart shows that a wind turbine is only able to generate electricity in the narrow margin between Beaufort 4 and Beaufort 8. Below Beaufort 4, so little electricity is produced that the wind turbine is shu t off from the grid. Above Beaufort 8, the machine is turned off to prevent the generator overloading or to forestall serious damage to the rotor blades, including the possibility of pieces of them being hurled away.<br><br> (See http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co .uk/Down loads/Accidents% 20_Jan2006.pdf for authenticated reports of accidents and deaths involving turbines and propeller blades.) P romoters and manufacturers of wind turbines often boast that their machines are able to produce electric power at Beaufor t 3; some even state that the turbine 8begins to rotate 9 at Beaufort 2. These claims are highly improbable. What is never me ntioned is that the produced kW are then either zero or are immeasurably minimal.<br><br> 15 Table 2: Wind speed according to the Beauf ort wind scale, in metres/sec and km/h (Maximum power of wind turbine at about 55 km/h - 60 km/h . ) Wind force according to the Beaufort Scale Wind speed in m/sec Wind speed in km/h Kinetic energy (at the km/h speed in brackets) 2 - Light breeze 1.6 - 3.3 5. 8 - 12 (10) zero 3 - Gentle breeze 3.4 - 5.4 12 - 19.5 (18) nearly zero 4 - Moderate breeze 5.5 - 7.9 19.5 - 29 (25) 4% 5 - Fresh breeze 8.0 - 10.7 29 - 38.5 (35) 20% 6 - Strong breeze 10.8 - 13.8 38.9 - 50 (45) 43% 7 - Near gale 13.9 - 17.<br><br> 1 50 - 61.6 (60) 100% 8 - Gale 62 - 74 62 - 74 ( 70) 160% 9 - Severe gale 20.8 - 24.2 75 - 87.4 Out of service 10 - Storm 24.5 - 28.4 88 - 102 O ut of service A graphic of the produced power in kW would show a very steep falling concave (= hollow ) curve from maximum at about 60 km/h to zero. Modern wind turbines use pitching of the propeller blades above this 60 km/h to prevent the gener ator overloading. A graphic of such turbines would show a convex leveling of the produced power from 60 - 80 km/h.<br><br> Wind turbines are taken out of service at a wind speed under Beaufort 4, when they produce almost nothing, and are shut down at a wind speed over Beaufort 7 to 8, because of the risk of damage to the propeller. Thus, wind turbines are normally only in operatio n between Beaufort 4 and Beaufort 8, as is indicated in boldface in the above scale. During what we might call 8nice, quiet weather 9, wind turbines produce no electrical power at all.<br><br> Remember too that wind seldom blows at the very high Beaufort 7 level, so maximum power is rarely attained . F or the truth, simply listen to or look at the weather report. It is clear from the numbers above that the generat ing power of wind turbines fluctuates strongly with the speed of the wind.<br><br> Hence, it is misleading to a ssert that every year wind turbines in a certain region will produce about the same average number of kWh during a particular period or season. In fact, it is untr ue because the produced kW and kWh vary from day to day, even from hour to hour. The outright lie concerning a predictable 16 wind speed during certain periods in successive years is often told and is even depicted in skewed statistics in official reports to disguise the uncontrollable and unpredictable behavior of wind speed and wind turbines.<br><br> Ther e is simply no place on earth where the wind blows at exactly the same speed, year in, year out. And as we have seen, only a slight variation in wind speed changes the generator output sharply and uncontrollably. Blame it on t he unavoidable v 3 factor.<br><br> A ggregate wind power of 7000 wind turbines The aforementioned German E.ON Wind Report 2005 shows in the graph (Figure 2 in this paper ) variations in the total power of n o fewer than 7000 wind turbines spread over some thousands of square kilometres from the North Sea and the Baltic Sea to the Swiss - Austrian border. This graph for any other year would show the same kinds of variations, but of course not for precisely the same moments or days as shown here for 2004. It is clear that because of this wind tu rbine behavior it is unrealistic to demand a guarantee test, such as for a steam turbine.<br><br> The predicted performance of a wind turbine will always be guesswork. Diversifying the wind system: Scotland and Cornwall The above - mentioned graph (Figure 2) ind icates it is blatantly untrue that by spreading wind turbines over a wide area it would be possible to generate a near - steady aggregate power from the combined turbines. Some wind energy promoters refer to this as 8diversifying the wind system 9.<br><br> Picture the following scenario: An enormous wind farm is constructed in Scotland. The aggregate power of these turbines, costing millions and millions of pounds sterling, shows unfortunately almost exactly the same random variations as the 7000 widely dispersed wind turbines in the E.ON region in Germany (see Figure 2). An ingenious solution to this problem is then recommended: a similar wind farm should be built in Cornwall for approximately the same amount of money.<br><br> Wind energy scientists predict in an official British report that - almost synchronous with the Scottish dips from maximum to zero - Cornwall will produce as much power as is necessary to fill these power gaps in Scotland. 17 At the moment the wind speed slackens to B4 or even lower in Scotland, the win d speed in Cornwall will rise to a gale level of B7 or B8. And vice versa.<br><br> What a marvelous solution. These scientific experts advise initiating two enormous and horrendously expensive projects to assure that (fingers crossed) approximately the same total steady capacity of one of th ese projects will be produced. To synchronize two randomly occurring phenomena is quite a feat.<br><br> These scientists clearly have an enviable relationship with the UK weather gods. Because according to mathematics and also according to simple common sense: the sum of two random occurring phenomena will always remain random Let us hope, of course, that the ingenious creators of the Scotland/Cornwall 8divers ified wind system 9 will not forget to build in parallel three or four 380 kV p ower lines to transport that formidable power from south to north or north to south. Naturally, this will involve many large switching and transformer yards between Scotland and Cornwall to tap off some of the power for the regional customers and for inter connection with the national grid.<br><br> Thus, we are looking at an enterprise that will cost approximately one billion pounds sterling but that will certainly never work as promised. In addition, all the extremely expensive 8extras 9 needed to facilitate collabo ration between the wind turbines in the nort h and the south will themselves produce not one single kWh of electricity. Remember that.<br><br> This scenario is tantamount to a group of operators of a number of large power stations simultaneously turning the fuel s upply to their turbines on and off, the whole year around. When you look at the total of the varying aggregate wind power in Germany (a staggering 7050 MW), you will see that this comparison is in no way exaggerated. In the E.ON region it would take the operators of twelve huge power stations to produce the same effect.<br><br> The same thing will of course happen in Britain and elsewhere, and will result in exactly the same overwhelming predicament as exists in Germany. In their report, the German E.ON scientis ts - the engineers responsible for 7000 wind turbines - have stated: 8We have no solution for these problems. 9 Modern wind turbines A modern wind turbine is a machine that makes maximum use of that small driving force of the wind per square metre of the pr opeller circle. This means in the first place a system by which the turbine turns very quickly into 18 the direction of the wind.<br><br> E very modern turbine nowadays uses an exceptionally efficient system to achieve this. The propeller efficiency through which the wind energy is used to drive the propellers is currently at its technical and even theoretical maximum. An improvement is scarcely possible, similar to the efficiency of the generator and the static (semi - conductor) converter that transforms the electric ity from the generator into a current of 50 or 60 cycles, as needed in the power grid.<br><br> Therefore, there remains a single likelihood of raising the kWh output of the whole machine: capture as much wind as you can by making the propeller circle as large as possible. A gargantuan offshore turbine of 5 MW has now reached this capacity , with 61.5 metre - long rotor blades than can move in a circle some 126 metres in diameter . At 17 rotations per minute , this equates a speed measured at the tips of the propellers at about 6.7 km/min, or 403 km/h.<br><br> One can imagine that these dimensions and speed place an enormous strain on each part of the turbine, from the foundation up to the tip of the propeller at a height of 163 metres. For this reason, 5 MW is the capacity lim it of modern wind turbines, as well as what can be produced annually in kWh. (These dimensions were published by the German company REpower for their 5 MW wind turbine on the North Sea off the coast of Scotland which was put into operation in July 2006) Thus, although a modern win d turbine is undeniably an ingenious machine, as you can see by now it employs the weakest, most erratic driving medium imaginable: the wind.<br><br> This me ans the predictions cannot be true that wind turbine efficiency will improve i n the future because of a so - called learning curve. How could this be possible when the properties of the wind 9s driving power will never change? Hence, the speculation about a learning curve is mere wishful thinking.<br><br> It is pure fiction. A guarantee test as described for steam turbines is not possible for wind turbines. The number of kW and kWh produced in the course of a year is a matter of prediction.<br><br> The sharp variations in the generated power will always be similar to those shown in Figure 2 (taken fro m the Wind Report 2005 ) because these are bound to that unavoidable physical law: E = f.m spec . v 3 . Implications of the production factor / capacity factor On the mainland of Europe, 8 capacity factor 9 is generally referred to as 8 production factor 9 because it is a measure for the kWh produced.<br><br> This 19 factor indicates the actual kWh produced by a wind turbine, taking into account each interruption and variation during one year as a percentage of the total amount of kWh that would be produced in a year with cont inuous maximum power. Production factor denotes the idea better, so I will use only this term. The expression is more a notion concerning the actual produced kWh than the involved 8 capacity 9 of a wind turbine.<br><br> In addition, as stated previously, the conce pt of a machine 9s production factor is completely different from that of a machine 9s efficiency. Promoters of wind energy delight in describing the efficiency of wind turbines, even though it is nonsense in terms of evaluating a wind turbine 9s usefulness. In the E.ON graph (Figure 2), we can see that the total yearly amount of kWh is produced with considerable inconsistent power output of varying duration.<br><br> The total amount of produce d kWh expressed by that production factor in such a haphazard manner can of course be only a small percentage of what might be produced with continuous full power. Hence, it is important to keep in mind that the total amount of kWh 9s generated in a year by a wind turbine is never produced with a steady flow of kW 9s , altho ugh promoters of wind energy often try to make the public believe that it is. On the contrary, the produced current and therefore the produced kW 9s vary constantly and with unpredictable variations of unpredictable duration , thus making wind energy unsuita ble as a reliable and sustainable supplier of direct electrical power to consumers.<br><br> The annual kWh production by wind turbines is always the sum total of hundreds of small portions of kWh 9s . Wind energy promoters strive to conceal this fact. They state: 8T his turbine will produce with an efficiency of such and such 9, and then they mention a production factor.<br><br> All of this is misleading fabrication. Depending on a number of circumstances, the production factor of onshore turbines can range from a low 13% up to 25% for modern state - of - the - art and very tall turbines in a location having more or less continuously strong winds. In extremely rare situations the production factor can reach 30% in coastal areas.<br><br> Because of its complete unpredictability, however, th at factor will never be the same in successive years. It will always be a matter of 8let 9s wait and see 9, and this is why it is absolutely impossible to guarantee that a certain production factor will be reached. 20 Production factors in Europe It is intere sting to see the production factors that were measured in 2004 for the aggregate wind power in the Netherlands and Germany.<br><br> The Netherlands In 2004, a production factor of 22% was measured - not predicted - for a total of 1600 wind turbines. This factor will certainly rise somewhat, perhaps up to 24%, due to 8re - powering 9 several of the more than 800 80 kW - capacity wind turbines, most of which run with a production factor of 13 - 15%. This is the equivalent of an average power of 10.5 - 12 kW, or the power o f an electric wheel chair.<br><br> The building of these wind turbines, however, was intensively, and using strong pressure, recommended by the Dutch governme nt and all the organisations which had and have an int erest in building wind turbines as a seemingly eff ective method to help prevent global warming. Methods used to convince the public were unsavoury and highly questionable. Germany As can be calculated from the measured - not asserted - numbers in the excellent E.ON Wind Report 2005 , the average producti on factor in 2004 for the more than 7000 E.ON wind turbines, distributed over thousands of square kilometres, was 18.3%.<br><br> Due to the construction of several new turbines, this production factor had risen to around 19% by the end of 2004. In the month of Jul y, 2006, the production factor for all the wind turbines in Germany was measured at 7.5%. These numbers demonstrate that one should exercise extreme caution in the face of claims that the average long - term production factor for onshore wind energy turbine s in the UK can be estimated at 27% or sometimes even at 35%.<br><br> A production factor can never be predicted; not for hours, days or months, and even less so for consecutive years. It would be irresponsible to design a system for national electricity producti on that is based only upon an assertion that the wind speed on average will behave as one hopes. Such a system can and must only be designed based on a near 100 % certainty that every technical component will function as it should.<br><br> 21 Clearly the reliability of a national electricity supply cannot be determined by flinging coloured beads and chicken bones to the floor and appealing to the weather gods. Yet promoters of wind energy often give this impression when they argue: 8Really, on average over a month o r a year the wind blows much more regularly than from minute to minute or from hour to hour. 9 But they are guilty of overt deception by even concocting a graph that shows only an averaging of the wind speed over a certain period. Variations in unpredicta bly produced kilowatts In this section you will encounter informati on given previously in this treatise .<br><br> However, the facts are simply too important not to be repeated. In many effusive stories about wind energy you will certainly come across the asserti on that wind turbines will produce electricity with a steady power of a certain number of kW, conforming to the prod uction factor. By referring to a 3 MW turbine and a production factor of 25% , promoters try to convince you that the turbine will produce e lectricity with a steady power of 0.25 x 3000 = 750 kW.<br><br> This is once again misleading, because what the turbine produces during a year is the total sum of hundreds of small and varying quantities of kWh. They alter because the power varies during hundreds of periods of changing length . A wind turbine will never and can never produce electricity at steady power.<br><br> It is necessary to call attention to this fac t repeatedly, because propagandists of wind ener gy ceaselessly try to conceal this fact. . Sometimes t hey do this by publishing a graph that depicts the average power over a certain period, or over days or a week or even a month.<br><br> This is intended deception. They want you to forget the essential difference between produced kilowatts (i.e. power) and produce d kilowatt - hours (i.e.<br><br> energy). Why wind energy is entirely unreliable Everything in this book is based upon that fact that wind energy can only produce electricity unreliably and in minimal quantities. This will, of course, be vehemently denied by anyon e with a personal or political interest in the construction of wind turbines.<br><br> Perhaps even they could be convinced by the following mutually corroborative evidence: 22 1. The fixed formula E = f. m spec .v 3 alrea dy indicates all the important facts: electr icity produced by wind turbines i s minimal and completely unpredictable and therefore unreliable; 2.<br><br> This is conf irmed by the graph in Figure 2 , which depicts the unreliability of the aggregate production of 7000 widely dispersed turbines. El ectricity produced by wind turbines is a random phenomenon; 3. Every discussion about how much the production factor will be (from below 18% to a highly improbable 35%) is in itself already full confirmation of the unreliability.<br><br> It proves that the kWh or kWyears must have been produced with an extremely varying power. Were it not so, this number would of course be in the region of 90% - 95%, as can easily be reached by normal, i.e. conventional steam - , gas - or water turbines.<br><br> The sm all nuclear power plant Borssele (450 MW) in the Netherlands runs with a 8 capacity 9 - or production factor - of 94%. This translates to steady full power for almost the whole year. (Worth repeating is that the production factor of a wind - , steam - or gas turbine or any other machine is quite different from the efficiency of that machine.) It seems strange that promoters of wind energy - whether official, political or so - called specialists - never mention the significant disadvantage of wind energy : namely , its complete unreliability.<br><br> One might justifiably suspect that a hidden personal or political agenda is at play here. How can high production factors for other prime movers be reached? Quite simply because it is up to the operators of these power plants to decide how much power is needed at a particular time.<br><br> These prime movers are not dependent on the strength of the wind or on the state of the weather. It would be foolhardy to build any kind of power plant, whether steam driven, water powered or nucle ar powered, for which it would be necessary to check the daily weather forecast. Ridiculous to imagine that if by chance the wind did not blow at exactly the right strength, the operator would be forced to phone a colleague at a conventional power plant, with the urgent request, 8Hey, George, I 9m short of quite a few megawatts today.<br><br> Can you help me out? 9 23 Why wind energy will remain expensive Wind energy is and will remain expensive because of the combined properties of wind turbines. Let us assume w ind turbines are built at a cost of several million pounds sterling. (Indeed, they cost roughly 0.8 - 0.9 million pounds sterling or 1 to 1.3 million euro per MW capacity onshore.) The price is of course related to the capacity, to the maximum power of the machine, and is the price for 100% power .<br><br> Over a given year, however, the turbine will produce on average only 25 - 30% of its power capacity. T his means that of the price for 100% power, about 70 - 75% is flung to the winds, so to speak. The 70 - 75% on average does not produce a single kWh.<br><br> On top of that, the dismal amount of the product, the kWhs, is of very poor 8 quality 9 : namely, only available with hundreds of variations between zero and maximum, and on many days not available at all. This is the worst pr operty for an electricity supply to have, making it unviable for supply to single consumers, a factory, a hospital or a household. Such a dismal product is of course of reduced value on the energy market and can only be sold at a reduced price, making mass ive subsidies necessary.<br><br> These subsidies are paid by the general public. Moreover, on the conventional energy market it is possible to write a contract for a supply of X number of megawatthours of electricity during a certain period: it can be next week or even next month. This cannot be done for MWh 9s produced by wind turbines.<br><br> Thus, MWh 9s produced in a traditional manner are much more valuable than the unpredictable MWh 9s produced by wind turbines. One can make the following simple comparison: A car t hat can be used every day with unfailing reliability will certainly be more valuable than a car that you can use only after determining whether the weather is auspicious. Again, this means that wind turbines can only be operated economically with substanti al subsidies and with the taxpayer being hit with a higher electricity bill.<br><br> Anyone can understand this. It is simply inevitable that the taxpayer will pay a great deal of money for an unreliable product that is the source of highly dangerous consequences for the country 9s safe and reliable electricity supply. Now let us turn from the financial aspect of wind energy and examine some of the technical difficulties and related risks.<br><br> We saw that the electric power produced by wind has severely inconsistent v ariations between zero and 24 maximum power. Unpredictable variations of likewise capricious durations lasting from minutes to days are shown in Figure 2 for the aggregate power of 7000 wind turbines distributed over an area of many thousands of square kilome tres in Germany. (In the highly misleading report Windpower and the UK wind resource , published by the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute , this is called 8diversifying the wind system 9).<br><br> From the graph (Fig 2) it must be clear that variat ions of such magnitude in the input of wind energy into the normal electric grid will result in extremely unstable situations for the maintenance of a reliable supply of electricity to consumers. As electricity is neither compressible nor elastic, each k W that is consumed (or not consumed) must immediately be followed by adaptation of the input from the power stations into the grid. When a considerable input of wind energy varies more quickly than can be followed by the adaptation of the power stations, t he whole system will break down.<br><br> The result will be a complete national or even an international blackout Adaptation of the aggregate power of many hundreds of interconnected traditional power plants to the demand takes time and is certainly not as variab le as changes in the wind speed. These unpredictable and rapid variations in the input from wind energy, from very high to suddenly very low, can lead to severe regional blackouts not only in Germany but in many p arts of central Europe. The E.ON Wind Repo rt 2005 states that the feed - in capacity of their 7000 wind turbines change often and dramatically, and they give an example: 8On Christmas Eve 2004 wind production in Germany fell 4000 MW in 10 hours, representing the capacity of eight 500 WW coal - fired power plants!<br><br> This created an enormous challenge for the operators of the grid and it could easily lead to a vast blackout in Europe. 9 An incredible amount of luck would play a role as well. 25 Figure 3, taken from that report, depicts what happened. It is inevitable that catastrophes will happen in the near future.<br><br> In the candid German E.ON Wind Report 2005 , E.ON scientists and engineers state: 8We see no solution for all the difficulties that can arise. 9 A special warning for the UK The risks for seve re disturbances of the national electricity supply caused by the extensive use of wind energy are even more real for the UK than for Germany. The latter is interconnected to the electricity grids of the neighbouring countries by very strong ultra - high volt age lines that can function as a safety net when sudden variations in the total wind power output occur. The UK has no such strong connections to surrounding countries.<br><br> That is why the risks for the UK will be incomparably greater than they already are fo r Germany. 26 Wind energy: Always a poor substitute for traditional power stations Because of the unreliable and varying production of electricity by wind power, the guaranteed wind power capacity is never more than 10% of the total installed wind capacity . For the safe operation of a national grid, it would be dangerous to reckon with more than this amount as a substitute for traditional power stations.<br><br> With a very intensive use of wind power, this percentage even falls below 8% to about 4%, as is explaine d in the E.ON Wind Report 2005 . (The more wind turbines are interconnected the greater the difference between full aggregate power and minimal power will be. That means that interconnecting a large number of wind turbines will not improve the reliability o f the aggregate production of electricity but diminish the 8security of supply 9) In the event of a rapidly changing wind energy input, the reachable adaptation rate of the traditional power stations 9 total power determines at what percentage the installe d wind power can be considered a safe substitute.<br><br> That percentage also depends on the possibility of quickly producing more power to fill the gap caused by the diminished wind power. This means that traditional power stations will remain essential simply b ecause of considerable wind power. Approximately 90% of the installed wind power is needed as a reserve capacity.<br><br> Moreover, the balancing act between the production possibility of traditional power stations and the unforeseeable variations of wind energy makes the safe operation of such a grid extremely difficult, if not impossible. To better comprehend the complexity of the problem, the reader is advi sed to examine again Figure 2, which depicts variations in the aggregate wind power of 7000 wind turbines. It will be self - evident that in a country with so much unreliable wind power, spread over a wide area, it would be necessary to build a large number of new ultra - high voltage, 380 kV lines (with of course the necessary switching and transformer station s) to transport that highly variable electricity supply to where it is needed.<br><br> In Germany, the cost of these provisions, made necessary only because of wind energy variables, is estimated at about 3 billion (yes, billion ) euros. Two billion Pounds Sterling .. 27 Remember, all these problems originate from the formula E = f.<br><br> m spec . v 3 . 8Households 9 is not a unit of measurement Most information about the benefits of wind farms or wind farms states that the wind turbines involved will produce sufficient elect ricity to supply X number of 8households 9.<br><br> A n impressive number then follows. This ploy is used to induce people to believe the wind turbines are exceptionally useful for the production of a great deal of renewable or sustainable energy. The implication i s also that these wind turbines will supply all the electricity for everyone i n the village or in a specific region.<br><br> This is simply not true. Let us look at the reality: 1. Because of the entirely unpredictable and varying amount of electricity produced b y wind energy, no consumer can ever depend upon a reliable supply.<br><br> In fact it is naive to believe that wind turbines really produce electricity for households. At least 99.5% of t he current in a wall plug is quite commonly generated by means of a tradition al power plant. Often it will be 100%.<br><br> 2. No one will ever be able to ad equately measure the number of households, and it would also be foolish to forget that almost every community has numerous other users of electricity: namely, shops, municipal sewage pumps, hospitals, schools and so forth. The bottom line is that a wind farm 9s usefulness can never be reflected in that imaginary measurement designated as 8 households 9 .<br><br> 3. The term 8 households 9 does not exist as a unit of measurement. The only correct and controllable measurement relating to the production of electricity is the number of kWh 9s (kilowatt - hours) or kWy 9s (kilowatt - years).<br><br> Only because it is impossible to guarantee or predict the kWh production do builders and advocates of wind turbines use the fantasy measurement households . Once again, it is highly misleading information that intentionally hides the facts and makes the situation look far better than it is . If you are seriously interested in the amount of electricity produced by a wind turb ine, you need to ask about the amount of kWy 9s .<br><br> By omitting the suffix 8years 9 you will know immediately with what average power over a 28 year the involved wind turbines are generating electricity. Never be fooled by the expression 8number of households 9. The minute production of electricity in numbers To judge the production of electricity by using wind energy, it will be elucidating to make a comparison to the total electricity consumption of an industrialised country.<br><br> In 2004, the total consumption in t he UK was ab out 403,000 GWh, or 46,000 MWy. This means that in 2004 the total UK consumption was produced with an average aggregate power of 46,000 MW from all the power stations. Let us estimate the yearly rise in total consumption to be about 2%.<br><br> This indicates a yearly increase of 920 MW in the power needed from all the contributing power stations. This would equal the capacity of two medium - size power stations. (It is clear that a country that does not continually build enough new power plants to mee t consumer demands will eventually face unavoidable problems.) We will look now at how wind turbines could participate.<br><br> Let us c onsider two types: the very large 3 MW turbines and the gargantuan 5 MW turbines. The massive propellers of both types extend much further than 100 metres and are clearly visible in the English countryside from many kilometres away. In Europe only a handful of 5 MW turbines are currently in operation.<br><br> We estimate that both types will run with an average production factor of 25 % . This is a high number when one realises that in the Netherlands an average production factor of 22% for 1600 onshore wind turbines and in Germany an average of 19% for 7000 wind turbines was measured. A 3 MW wind turbine This will produce electricity w ith an average yearly power of 0.25 x 3000 kW = 750 kW, which is about the top power of a medium - size Diesel truck.<br><br> In comparison to what the UK needs in total power production, 46,000 MW, 29 we see that a 3 MW wind turbine produces annually 0.75 MWy. This me ans 16 millionth parts (written in decimals as 0 . 000,016).<br><br> A 5 MW wind turbine This monster will produce with a yearly average of 0.25 x 5000 = 1250 kW, which is the top power of a large Diesel truck. Yearly production will be 1.25 MWy. In comparison to the UK total (electric) power production needs, it is 27 millionth parts (written in decimals as 0 .<br><br> 000,027). It can be expected that promoters of wind energy will protest vehemently against the 25% production factor mentioned here. But even without resort ing to a pocket calculator, the reader can see that also with a slightly higher production factor we would gain only a few more millionth parts.<br><br> And do not forget that 25% was reckoned as an average number and that it is impossible to predict and guarantee a certain production factor (or capacity factor). A production factor can only be measured after 12 months of operation and it will vary from year to year. A predic tion that wind turbines in some regions will have a strong production factor can only be a guess, and it will also vary from turbine to turbine.<br><br> Still more revealing is the dismal production of electrical energy by wind turbines when compared to the total energy consumption in the UK. As already stated, in most industrialised countries the to tal yearly energy consumption is about six times greater than that of only electricity. This brings us to the following conclusions: A 3 MW wind turbine produces about a 2.7 millionth part of the UK 9s total energy consumption (written in decimals as 0 .<br><br> 000, 002.7); A 5 MW wind turbine produces about a 4.5 millionth part of the UK 9s total energy consumption ( written in decimals as 0 . 000,004.5). How miniscule the production of electricity by a 3 MW wind turbine is in comparison to the electricity and energy con sump tion of a number of countries i s shown in the following table.<br><br> 30 Table 3: Energy production from a 3 MW wind turbine in comparison to total electricity and total energy consumption in certain countries Country Total electricity consumption in MWyears Output with respect to national electricity consumption Output with respect to national energy consumption UK 46,000 16,10 - 6 2.7,10 - 6 Germany 60,300 12.4,10 - 6 2.1,10 - 6 France 49,463 15.2,10 - 6 2.5,10 - 6 Spain 26,380 28.4,10 - 6 4.7,10 - 6 Netherlands 12,500 60,10 - 6 10,10 - 6 USA 417,000 1.8,10 - 6 0.3,10 - 6 China 247,717 3.0,10 - 6 0.5,10 - 6 India 59,246 12.6,10 - 6 2.1,10 - 6 Canada 59,463 12.6,10 - 6 2.1,10 - 6 Brazil 42,373 18,10 - 6 3,10 - 6 The numbers in Table 3 are based upon an average production factor of 25% and upon the presumption that the total energy consumption of a modern country is almost six times more than the electricity consumption. (In reality this number is even 12 for the USA !) One must remember that the yearly output of a wind turbine is no t produced by a steady power (kW), but that the output is produced as the total sum of hundreds of small portions of kWh produced by kW that vary unpredictably between zero and maximum and that are of varying unpredictable duration. These numbers demonstr ate unequivocally that it would be impossible to save the world from the most devastating global warming - related d isasters through the use of unreliably functioning wind turbines.<br><br> They also show that it is not difficult to guess the real motives of people who insist that wind energy is the ultimate solution to our energy and climate problems. It must be evident that the real problem is to find methods to produce enough energy in a reliable continuous manner, and not only electricity. One might speculate that the advocates of wind energy never mention this self - evident truth because that would make their real motives abundantly clear: they are blindly following a politically dictated policy or even pursuing business or a well - paid job.<br><br> How else could it be explained why some proponents and even well - known institutions publish propaganda full of 31 blatant nonsense including statistics and graphs that are false and meant to mislead an inattentive and trusting public. 8The biggest wind farm in Europe 9 Really? According to an article in the newspapers of October 18, 2006, the German company Siemens announced that they had received an order to build 8t he biggest wind farm in Europe 9 .<br><br> The following information was given: This wind farm will be built in Scotland n ear to Glasgow for Scottish Power: 140 wind turbines will have an aggregate capacity of 322 MW and produce enough electricity for 200,000 households. Total costs: 350 million euro (or 235 million pound s Sterling ) Let us see what more information can be de rived from this newspaper announcement: Each wind turbine will be built to have a capacity of 322/140 = 2.3 MW. A modest capacity, because the really big ones have a capacity of about 5 MW With a production factor of 25 percent this 8biggest wind farm in E urope 9 will effectively produce with an average power of about 80 MW.<br><br> That is equal to the capacity of a very small conventional power station and equals not more than 0.001 . 7 of the total power generated by all the power stations in the UK ( 1.7 promille) . This makes it a joke to boast about 8the biggest wind farm in Europe 9.<br><br> As the reader will remember, the aggregate power of the wind farm will vary hundreds of time during a year between full capacity of 322 MW and near zero (See Figures 1 and 2). That m eans that Scottish Power has to keep about 290 MW of the conventional power stations available for speedy backup when the full capacity of 322 MW drops sharply with subsiding wind speed in order to prevent a serious blackout that could spread over a large part of England. A consequence of this is that one or two conventional power stations must be kept running at reduced power, and therefore with reduced efficiency.<br><br> This means that more CO 2 will be exhausted per produced kWh. The amount of 350 million euro (235 million Pound Sterling) tells us that the price of the UHV switch yard and power lines for transporting the power that will fluctuate between zero and 322 MW are not included in the price that was indicated in this newspaper article. This makes it cle ar that for an average power of a mere 80 MW this 8biggest wind farm in Europe 9 is a n extreme costly affair and is producing electricity for a fancy price per kWh.<br><br> 32 The whole project seems politically motivated, because it brings no

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