Immigration and the American Economy: Is Bad Policy Creating a Hostile

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Immigration and the American Economy: Is Bad Policy Creating a Hostile Welcome? March 2005 B. Lindsay Lowell Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM) Georgetown University Tel: (202) 687-2602, -2258 Email: lowellbl@georgetown.edu Presentation at the roundtable series on "Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy, d Thursday, March 17th, the Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.

Immigrant Share of S&E Employment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Tabulations from US Census microdata Share Decade Growth 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Share of Workforce Immigrant Share of Workforce Growth Immigrant Share of Workforce Immigrant Share of S&E Workers, 2000 9.5% 12.3% 13.9% 16.0% 20.3% 25.5% Social scientists Science technicians Math (and computer) scientists (excl programmers) Engineers and surveyers Engineering technicians Natural scientists Source: US Census microdata Earned doctoral degrees Ctizens by sex and Non- citizens total 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2000 Source: NSF, S&E Indicators 2-26 Male Female Non- Citizens, Total Foreign Student Enrollment 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Source: IEE Open Doors S&E Non S&E Foreign Student Enrollments by Major S&E Field and for Business 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 1999/00 ... more. less.

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Source: IIE Open Doors Business & Management Mathematics & Computer Sciences Engineering Social Sciences Physical & Life Sciences New H-1B Temporary Skilled Worker Visas & Petitions 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1967 1979 1991 2003 Source: DHS Immigration Statistics MANY ASSERT THAT THE UNITED STATES IS LESS HOSPITABLE in the aftermath of the terrorist tragedies of September 11th 4 " Outdated and overly bureaucratic immigration laws , the perception that the United States is less welcoming of foreigners , and heightened competition from foreign universities have lead to a decline of foreign nationals (AeA, Losing the Competitive Advantage?). " What the latest numbers make clear is that the enrollment declines are now widespread and dramatic enough to seriously threaten the U.S. academic research enterprise& (IEEE 2004). " Historically, the US has benefited from both an abundant supply& Analyses of current trends , however, indicate serious problems lie ahead that may threaten our long-term prosperity and national security (NSB 2004). " & the climate for creative talent in the United States has chilled& as a result of direct policies which restrict scientific information and make it harder for people to get into and out of the country and& a widening perception of the U.S. as& less friendly toward foreign-born people (Florida 2004). GETTING A STUDENT VISA VISA APPROVAL " typically 1 day to two weeks depending on country VISA ISSUANCE ON RE-ENTRY " from required re-approvals to one-year approval recently VISA TOTAL (ADJUSTED) REFUSAL RATE " from ca. 21% in 1999 to 27% in 2002, now coming down SPECIAL SECURITY CLEARANCE Government Accountability Office (GAO) Spring 2003 report: " Visas Mantis check took an average of 67 days " 7,000 cases before 9/11 to nearly 20,000 after " Visas denied being 2 percent of cases " Note:. 234,000 F-1 visas issued in 2002 Winter 2005 report: " Visas Mantis check took an average of 15 days Index of Restrictive Immigrant Attitudes, 2004 0 20 40 60 80 100 Canada Japan United States Spain France Italy Germany United Kingdom Mexico Source: IPSIS poll All Immigrants Having Faced Discrimination and Reporting Increased Discrimination Since 9/11 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Faced discrimination in housing, jobs and services Faced discrimination by police Increased discrimination since 9/11 Source: NPR/Kaiser Poll, Summer 2004 Re-entry Problems for NIH Postdoctoral Scholars, 2003 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% no travel outside USA no problems on re-entry minor problems on re-entry moderate problems on re-entry serious problems on re-entry Source: Sigma Xi Figure 1. Percent of U.S. Recent Immigrants and non-EU Immigrants with Tertiary Education 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Sources: European Commission, 2003, chart 139; U.S. Census microdata. Percent of Immigrants Ages 15 to 64 USA EU S&E Doctoral Degrees, 1976-2001 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Source: NSF S&E Indicators 2004 USA France, Germany, United Kingdom China, India, Japan, So Korea, Taiwan Ranking of the Index of Controlled/Competitive Permanent Skilled Worker Programs 0 20 40 60 80 100 Australia, economic stream Canada UK, work permit UK, HSMP New Zealand, priority France, fast track UK, innovators Germany, work permit Norway Average New Zealand, work permit France United States, EB 2,3,4 Spain So. Africa, quota permit So. Africa, general permit Italy Source: Lowell 2005 Ranking of Index of Controlled/Competitive Temporary Skilled Worker Programs 0 20 40 60 80 100 Australia, economic stream UK, HSMP Australia, business UK, work permit New Zealand, priority UK, innovators Average Canada, TFW France So. Africa, general permit New Zealand, work permit United States, H-1B France, fast track Italy Norway Germany, work permit Japan Germany, green card Spain So. Africa, quota permit Source: Lowell 2005 Combined Index of Skilled Immigrant Competitiveness 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 France Portugal Germany Belgium Finland Austria Ireland Greece Japan Denmark Spain Average Luxemborg Switzerland Netherlands Italy Sweden New Zealand United Kingdom United States Canada Norway Australia Source: Lowell 2005 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, 2004 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (29) CHINA MAINLAND 24 (25) JAPAN 23 (19) UNITED KINGDOM 22 (20) GERMANY 21 (31) BAVARIA 20 (38) ZHEJIANG 19 (16) NEW ZEALAND 18 (15) NORWAY 17 (21) MALAYSIA 16 (13) NETHERLANDS 15 (9) SWITZERLAND 14 (14) AUSTRIA 13 (17) TAIWAN 12 (12) SWEDEN 11 (11) IRELAND 10 (2) LUXEMBOURG 9 (3) FINLAND 8 (5) DENMARK 7 (10) HONG KONG 6 (8) ICELAND 5 (7) AUSTRALIA 4 (6) CANADA 3 (4) SINGAPORE 2 (1) USA 1 Source: IMD

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