604 North Third Street, 1st Floor

of 45 to 40 percent; 8% are undecided and 6% say would vote for another candidate. This 5-point lead for Biden, which is statistically significant because it is outside the poll 9s 3.36% margin of error, marks the first time in publicly-released surveys that Biden has held the lead. It also represents a significant shift in support for Biden compared to our April survey which showed Castle with a 21-point lead, mainly due to Biden 9s increased support with critical independent voters which make up nearly 1 in 4 voters in Delaware.<br><br> A second explanation for the shift away from Castle in the current poll may be a result of negative publicity he received in the state after casting a cno d vote for President Obama 9s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress. The current poll was conducted 11/10 3 11/15, the week immediately following the weekend when the U.S.<br><br> House of Representatives voted on this landmark legislation. In the current poll, Castle leads 72/17 among Republicans while Biden leads 65/21 among Democrats. Among Independents however, Castle holds a much narrower 42/37 margin, compared to a more substantial 55/28 margin in the April survey.<br><br> Biden 9s 65/21 margin over Castle with Democrats has also strengthened from a 52/36 lead in our April survey. Among traditional csuper d voters, or those who vote in all elections, the race is virtually tied at 43/42 (Biden), while among more infrequent voters, or those who mainly vote in presidential years Biden 9s lead is stronger, at 49/38. This means Biden 9s chances of success are greatly improved if turnout is higher among cpresidential-type d voters next year, groups which historically have lower turnout in non-presidential years like 2010.<br><br> This is an important point because it is precisely this type of lower turnout among cpresidential-type voters d, and especially among younger voters and minorities that contributed to Democratic losses in governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia earlier this year. Therefore, regardless of which candidate eventually becomes the Democratic nominee, if the Democrats are unsuccessful replicating the kind of voter turnout that helped propel President Obama to office in 2008 then Castle will be much better positioned to win. For purposes of our cross-tabulations, csuper d voters are listed as c1x d voters, while cpresidential d voters are listed as c2x d.<br><br> Biden leads Castle by a 50/36 margin with voters in the Democratic stronghold of New Castle County (which accounts for more than sixty percent of the vote in the state), while Castle leads Biden both in Kent (44/42) and conservative-leaning Sussex County (49/35). A traditional gender gap also exists in the poll, since Biden leads among females (49/37) while Castle leads among males (44/40). 604 North Third Street, 1 st Floor Harrisburg, PA 17101 Phone: (717) 233-8850 Fax: (717) 233-8842 Cell Phone: (717) 215-1122 Email: james@susquehannapolling.com www.susquehannapolling.com James Lee, President Final Top Line Survey Results Delaware Statewide Automated Survey Sample Size: 850 Registered Voters Conducted: November 10-15, 2009 Hello, this is Voter Survey Service conducting a two minute survey in Delaware& Q1.<br><br> What is the most important problem facing Delaware? Press 1 for taxes. Press 2 for the economy and jobs.<br><br> Press 3 for government spending. Press 4 for education and schools. Press 5 for healthcare.<br><br> Press 6 for something else or if you are undecided& 1. Taxes 37 04% 2. Economy/jobs 424 50% 3.<br><br> Government spending 115 13% 4. Education/schools 82 10% 5. Healthcare 99 12% 6.<br><br> Other/Undecided 93 11% Q2. If the next election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for Beau Biden the Democrat, or Mike Castle the Republican? Press 1 for Democrat Beau Biden, press 2 for Republican Mike Castle, press 3 for someone else, or press 4 if you are undecided.<br><br> 4/09 %Ch 1. Biden 383 45% 34% +11 2. Castle 343 40% 55% -15 3.<br><br> Other 55 06% 03% +3 4. Undecided 68 08% 08% -- ----------------------------------------------------------- All Rep Dem Ind Kent NC Sus Male Fem 1x 2x 1. Biden 45% 17% 65% 37% 42% 50% 35% 40% 49% 49% 43% 2.<br><br> Castle 40% 72% 21% 42% 44% 36% 49% 44% 37% 38% 42% 3. Other 06% 09% 04% 09% 09% 06% 07% 07% 06% 07% 06% 4. Undecided 08% 03% 10% 12% 06% 08% 09% 08% 08% 07% 09% THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.<br><br> YOU MAY HANG UP TO END THIS CALL. Q3. Party (from record) 1.<br><br> Republican 238 28% 2. Democrat 417 49% 3. Independent/Other 195 23% Q4.<br><br> Age (from record) 1. 18-29 102 12% 2. 30-44 179 21% 3.<br><br> 45-59 315 37% 4. 60+ 255 30% Q5. Gender (from record) 1.<br><br> Male 378 44% 2. Female 472 56% Q6. Area (from record) 1.<br><br> Kent 145 17% 2. New Castle 518 61% 3. Sussex 187 22% Q7.<br><br> Vote history (from record) 1X 339 40% 2X 511 60% The margin of error for a sample size of 850 is +/-3.36% © Susquehanna Polling and Research is a Harrisburg, PA-based political polling firm both for political clients (Republican only) and corporate interests. SP&R conducts surveys mainly in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Florida. Susquehanna Polling and Research also does business under the name Voter Survey Service (VSS).<br><br>

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